Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17bd…f0ba weather 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 420d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,192 (-9%) realized −$1,363 · open +$171
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$508
14 days+$491
30 days+$491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$1,420
weather 24% +$547
crypto 12% −$577
other 5% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +10.2% -0.3% 38% 33% +15.8%
≤30d 34 -9.6% -18.2% 29% 26% +7.5%
≤90d 34 -9.6% -18.2% 29% 26% +7.5%
all 56 -14.3% -22.5% 32% 25% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 25% -19.8%
10% -29.9% 25% -27.4%
15% -36.7% 18% -34.5%
20% -42.9% 12% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$125 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$882
Realized−$1,363
Unrealized+$171
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 38
Open positions8
Markets (closed)56 / 64
History coverage420d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $100 $218 +$118 (+118%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $148 $167 +$19 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 28? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $39 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 28? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $145 −$9 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $11 +$25 +229%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $270 −$17 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $264 +$73 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $189 +$48 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $56 −$16 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $68 −$46 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $18 −$16 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $213 +$233 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $122 −$49 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $181 +$163 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $103 −$11 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $49 −$26 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $34 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 23? Jun 22 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $23 −$16 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $83 +$236 +285%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $228 +$53 +24%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 −$38 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $60 −$58 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $47 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $369 +$123 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $72 −$8 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $91 +$36 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$18 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 24 at 5 P May 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 23? May 24 $375 −$375 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on May 23? May 23 $300 −$47 -16%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 23? May 23 $300 −$197 -66%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $3,769 −$3,329 -88%
Will Dan win all the Bucharest sectors? May 18 $6 −$5 -83%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 18 $100 +$55 +54%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $3,296 +$1,226 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 09 $214 +$14 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 09 $186 +$51 +27%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 09 $50 +$21 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? May 08 $50 −$29 -58%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 04 $1,128 +$692 +61%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2000 on May 9? May 04 $5 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 22m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 52m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 86¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 86¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 87¢ $146 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? SELL Yes 21¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 42¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 59¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 58¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 28¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? SELL No 61¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? SELL No 65¢ $37 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 13¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $881.55 · official $882.03 (match) · 484 history records