Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17be…e5b4 sports 732 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,455 (-4%) realized −$3,489 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%345W / 448L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day87.3pace
Fees−$761est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,474
7 days−$1,118
14 days−$1,700
30 days−$5,573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,006
crypto 27% −$2,888
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 299 -31.4% -37.9% 33% 31% -25.7%
≤30d 756 -18.0% -25.9% 44% 37% -15.5%
≤90d 793 -16.7% -24.6% 44% 36% -14.9%
all 793 -16.7% -24.6% 44% 36% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 36% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 30% -23.1%
15% -38.4% 24% -30.5%
20% -44.5% 20% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$67 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,288
Realized−$3,489
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses345 / 448
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$761
Open positions3
Markets (closed)793 / 732
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$121
Trades / day87.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 793 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Baltimore Orioles 56¢ 100¢ $69 $122 +$53 (+78%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 63¢ 100¢ $62 $98 +$37 (+59%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 17¢ 16¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 375 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$20 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$3 -148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: GOAL vs Team Insidious (BO5) - HLL Playoffs Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$58 -190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 80¢ $4 19m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 66¢ $7 21m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 89¢ $11 22m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 6¢ $0 22m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 6¢ $0 22m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 93¢ $11 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 80¢ $9 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 24¢ $0 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 76¢ $4 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 73¢ $100 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 27¢ $7 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Boston Red Sox 63¢ $1 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 37¢ $18 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 24¢ $3 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 79¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 21¢ $2 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 73¢ $7 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $2 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Boston Red Sox 60¢ $3 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 30¢ $6 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 71¢ $3 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 71¢ $21 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 73¢ $6 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 26¢ $1 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Minnesota Twins 59¢ $2 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 53¢ $3 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 30¢ $3 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 39¢ $9 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 62¢ $45 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 64¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,287.99 · official $1,286.47 (match) · 3500 history records