Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
17 0x17be…8c5e other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$96 (+8%) realized +$97 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 36L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$162
14 days+$205
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$132
sports 20% +$58
crypto 4% −$25
politics 1% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +39.3% +26.0% 50% 50% +16.3%
≤30d 66 +14.5% +3.6% 45% 45% +5.7%
≤90d 66 +14.5% +3.6% 45% 45% +5.7%
all 66 +14.5% +3.6% 45% 45% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 45% +5.7%
10% -6.3% 45% -4.4%
15% -15.4% 39% -13.6%
20% -23.7% 35% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 36
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage16d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $216 $214 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 +$74 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$42 +42%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $81 +$26 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $104 +$30 +29%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $7 +$10 +134%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $3 +$27 +874%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $46 +$70 +152%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$6 +52%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $9 +$8 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 +$5 +105%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +313%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $194 55m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $23 56m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $81 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 4d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $134 4d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $17 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $104 4d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $7 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $46 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $24 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $9 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.25 · official $214.25 (match) · 113 history records