Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17c0…fa66 crypto 294 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate65%192W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$18
other 9% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.3% -8.3% 78% 33% -9.5%
≤30d 41 -12.6% -20.9% 49% 39% -16.4%
≤90d 294 +11.0% +0.4% 65% 31% -13.0%
all 294 +11.0% +0.4% 65% 31% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 31% -13.0%
10% -9.2% 24% -21.3%
15% -18.0% 19% -28.9%
20% -26.0% 15% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses192 / 102
Open positions0
Markets (closed)294 / 294
History coverage46d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 294 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 18 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 18 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 18 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 12 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 649 history records