Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17c7…4aa6 politics 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate28%36W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$808per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$669now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$16
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$57
other 34% −$104
sports 9% +$210
economics 3% +$2
world 3% −$41
culture 2% −$3
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -1.3% -10.7% 9% 2% -9.3%
all 127 +0.6% -9.0% 28% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 9% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 9% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 8% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,186) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$669
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses36 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage139d
Avg bet$808
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $669 $669 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $994 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,089 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,942 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,965 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,275 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3,280 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $422 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $315 +$1 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,747 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,067 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,380 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $790 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,148 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $4,319 −$5 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,082 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $678 +$1 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,127 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $1,081 −$1 -0%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Apr 06 $802 +$308 +38%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $267 18m
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $267 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $255 5h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $256 7h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $669 26h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $760 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $762 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $992 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $994 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,093 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,095 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,087 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,089 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $931 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $933 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,111 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,113 11d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $926 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $928 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,274 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,275 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,087 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $883 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $300 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $584 16d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $508 18d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $509 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $668.69 · official $668.69 (match) · 426 history records