Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17ca…b235 other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%21W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$31
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$23
other 26% −$31
sports 13% −$7
crypto 11% −$9
economics 7% −$4
world 5% −$6
culture 4% −$4
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.8% -10.3% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 73 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 152 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 165 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses21 / 144
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage100d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $44 $0 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $385 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $601 −$5 -1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $95 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 09 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $130 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $159 −$1 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $112 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $54 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $260 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $103 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $96 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 30 $237 −$2 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $106 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $166 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $24 54m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $27 54m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 8h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $57 9h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $57 17h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $38 17h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $38 24h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 25h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 41h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $54 41h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $54 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $44 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $43 2d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $44 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $46 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $47 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $42 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $35 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $8 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $56 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $56 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 89¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.54 · official $50.54 (match) · 684 history records