Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17cb…4634 weather 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%165W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% −$5
world 5% −$22
other 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 90 -0.9% -10.4% 99% 0% -10.7%
all 167 -0.9% -10.3% 99% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses165 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)167 / 168
History coverage181d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 24? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 23? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22? May 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 14? May 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 12? May 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 11? May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on May May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 8? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 8? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on May 8? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 7? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 7? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on May 7? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 6? May 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 6? May 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 5? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 4? May 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 3? May 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2? May 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2? May 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $22 +$1 +3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 10d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 18d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May BUY Yes 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 22d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 23d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 30d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 31d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $23 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.24 · official $7.24 (match) · 335 history records