Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17cb…3ab8 sports 583 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40,682 (-5%) realized −$40,690 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%251W / 328L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,429per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$282est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,143
7 days+$4,148
14 days+$2,842
30 days+$1,836
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$30,578
other 44% −$11,525
politics 0% +$265
world 0% −$706
tech 0% −$32
culture 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +11.3% +0.7% 54% 54% +3.0%
≤30d 62 -4.2% -13.3% 37% 35% -2.8%
≤90d 121 -22.9% -30.2% 34% 32% -15.9%
all 579 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 37% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 37% -13.5%
10% -31.1% 28% -21.8%
15% -37.7% 22% -29.4%
20% -43.8% 17% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$673 vs −$645 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$40,690
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses251 / 328
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$282
Open positions3
Markets (closed)579 / 583
History coverage610d
Avg bet$1,429
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 579 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 56¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance Côte dIvoire 36¢ 36¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 281 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $102 +$287 +280%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $7,225 +$1,606 +22%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $101 +$33 +32%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1,042 +$193 +18%
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6,025 +$952 +16%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $42 −$41 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 27 $1,008 −$60 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $10 +$24 +236%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $504 +$172 +34%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $151 +$66 +44%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 24 $5,023 +$2,519 +50%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $102 +$192 +188%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $251 −$249 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4,452 +$2,033 +46%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 −$8 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $10 +$35 +344%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,015 −$3,000 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,161 −$1,146 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $705 −$688 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,862 −$1,123 -60%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $104 −$16 -15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,637 +$138 +8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $113 −$110 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$250 +244%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,014 +$459 +45%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$119 +1290%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 93¢ $664 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $389 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $102 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 27¢ $102 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 6¢ $43 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $661 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $26 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $13 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $41 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $8 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $9 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $9 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $30 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $43 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $1,492 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $21 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $43 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $26 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $82 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $9 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $414 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $13 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $39 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $12 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $9 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $21 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 81¢ $21 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.30 · official $168.30 (match) · 2167 history records