Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17cb…9276 other 44 markets active 1d ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-18%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$19
sports 31% −$4
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.4% -14.4% 33% 33% -24.9%
≤30d 7 -18.9% -26.6% 29% 29% -44.4%
≤90d 38 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 26% -29.9%
all 38 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 26% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 26% -29.9%
10% -34.8% 24% -36.6%
15% -41.1% 21% -42.7%
20% -46.9% 21% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage52d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +155%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$1 -57%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 09 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $3 +$2 +88%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $3 $0 -2%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 02 $2 $0 -5%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 02 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 +$2 +70%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? May 02 $3 +$8 +231%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 02 $5 $0 -7%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 01 $1 −$1 -93%
Leeds United FC leading at halftime? May 01 $1 +$1 +88%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1 −$1 -74%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 01 $2 $0 -12%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 01 $5 $0 -6%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $1 $0 -3%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $3 +$3 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 31h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 25d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 25d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 30d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 31d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 31d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 32d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.73 · official $14.74 (match) · 117 history records