Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17cc…f54e world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% $0
other 22% +$2
sports 3% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 +0.1% -9.4% 39% 4% -9.5%
all 37 -1.1% -10.5% 51% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 5% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 3% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage470d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $47 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $23 −$2 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $74 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $76 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $24 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $77 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $31 +$4 +14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $141 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $31 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $33 −$4 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $10 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $34 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 16 $14 $0 -0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 29 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $14 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $16 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 12 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $12 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $38 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $38 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $38 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $18 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $16 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $38 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $21 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $22 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $14 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $25 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $24 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records