Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x17ce…beec
economics · 49 markets active 129d ago
0.0score
+$142,867 +37%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$142,881 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$5
Realized+$142,881
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses29 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 49
Avg bet$7,895
Trades / day158.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 28 $24,394 +$891 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026? Apr 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 28 $2,215 +$2,237 +101%
Texas Southern Tigers vs. Alcorn State Braves Apr 28 $215 +$504 +234%
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January? Apr 28 $388 −$388 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Apr 28 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Apr 28 $122 −$122 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Apr 28 $37,916 +$112 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Apr 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Apr 28 $1,076 +$847 +79%
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Apr 28 $427 +$1,081 +253%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Apr 28 $16,454 −$12,269 -75%
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Apr 28 $592 +$448 +76%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Feb 01 $233 −$53 -22%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 01 $240 +$12,231 +5096%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 01 $67,046 −$55,692 -83%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 01 $39,287 +$68,780 +175%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 01 $912 +$1,766 +194%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 01 $24,858 +$60 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 01 $16,563 +$2,739 +16%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Feb 01 $4,113 +$2,660 +65%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jan 31 $2,262 +$183 +8%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Jan 31 $330 +$732 +222%
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? Jan 31 $1,103 +$1,817 +165%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $78,310 +$7,227 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $1 +$69 +7043%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? Jan 29 $160 +$37,793 +23620%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $29,970 +$28,507 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7PM ET Jan 27 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 26 $2,169 +$5,868 +271%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 25 $160 +$36,082 +22551%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $879 +$1,897 +216%
Brex IPO before 2027? Jan 24 $178 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 17 $528 −$528 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 17 $1,184 −$1,184 -100%
Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday? Jan 17 $441 −$441 -100%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 16 $4,221 +$81 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 16 $673 +$1,093 +162%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $3,032 +$1,299 +43%
Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $1,089 −$16 -1%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $14,998 −$1,605 -11%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $3,700 +$1,260 +34%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 14 $1,438 −$123 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 47% +$67,543
world 28% +$8,875
politics 20% +$7,227
crypto 1% +$5,252
tech 1% +$2,372
culture 1% +$81
other 1% +$13,165
sports 0% +$38,351
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 129d
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards SELL Yes 7¢ $135 130d
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards SELL Yes 7¢ $1 130d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $181 130d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL No 46¢ $267 130d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL No 46¢ $9 130d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL Yes 19¢ $25 130d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $256 130d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 130d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 99¢ $9,920 130d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $63,427 130d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+155.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 19 -22.5% -29.9% 37% 26% -19.6%
all 49 +182.2% +155.3% 59% 45% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover158.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +155.3% 45% +6.4%
10% +130.9% 43% -3.8%
15% ← realistic here +108.5% 41% -13.1%
20% +88.1% 39% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.12 · official $5.12 (match) · 3500 history records