Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
17 0x17d2…d10d sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$116 (+19%) realized +$116 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$68
world 33% +$23
other 17% +$24
crypto 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +25.3% +13.4% 100% 100% +10.2%
≤90d 16 -7.2% -16.0% 69% 56% -4.4%
all 22 +17.7% +6.5% 77% 68% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 68% +9.0%
10% -3.7% 50% -1.4%
15% -13.0% 45% -11.0%
20% -21.5% 27% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage138d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 09 $17 +$3 +17%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg Jun 02 $21 +$4 +20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $18 +$9 +49%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $53 +$8 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $35 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 05 $56 +$4 +8%
Rangers vs. Panthers Apr 22 $26 +$33 +127%
Flyers vs. Devils Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 2? Apr 13 $28 +$16 +57%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $33 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Mar 30 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Mar 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 30 $53 +$20 +37%
Raptors vs. Bulls Mar 25 $22 +$8 +35%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 18 $30 +$17 +56%
Celtics vs. Suns Mar 04 $15 +$7 +45%
Raptors vs. Bulls Feb 24 $19 +$9 +49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 11 $16 +$22 +138%
Ostrava Open: Katie Volynets vs Alycia Parks Feb 06 $15 +$16 +113%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5 Feb 05 $16 +$17 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $66 1h
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Barbora Krejcikova 85¢ $17 10d
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg BUY Sebastian Baez 83¢ $21 16d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 67¢ $18 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 87¢ $53 31d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $35 44d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $56 57d
Rangers vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 44¢ $26 66d
Flyers vs. Devils BUY Devils 53¢ $20 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 2? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 77d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $53 82d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 86¢ $33 85d
Raptors vs. Bulls BUY Raptors 74¢ $22 91d
Suns vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 64¢ $30 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 106d
Celtics vs. Suns BUY Celtics 69¢ $15 114d
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY DRX 52¢ $15 119d
Raptors vs. Bulls BUY Raptors 67¢ $19 120d
Clippers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 75¢ $21 127d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY FURIA 42¢ $16 131d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY G2 39¢ $12 132d
Ostrava Open: Katie Volynets vs Alycia Parks BUY Volynets 47¢ $15 133d
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5 BUY Over 49¢ $16 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.64 · official $65.64 (match) · 47 history records