Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x17d5…6d57 crypto 423 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate85%355W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$30
14 days+$29
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$18
other 5% +$1
weather 3% −$18
finance 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 +6.1% -4.0% 88% 51% -4.0%
≤30d 412 +3.6% -6.3% 85% 43% -7.7%
≤90d 420 +2.4% -7.3% 85% 43% -9.2%
all 420 +2.4% -7.3% 85% 43% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 43% -9.2%
10% -16.2% 22% -17.9%
15% -24.3% 11% -25.8%
20% -31.7% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses355 / 65
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)420 / 423
History coverage37d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.13 · official $2.13 (match) · 859 history records