trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? | No | 93¢ | 72¢ | $488 | $378 | −$110 (-23%) |
| Spread: Ghana (-1.5) | Ghana | 1¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Game 1: Any Player Rampage? | No | 96¢ | 0¢ | $470 | $0 | −$470 (-100%) |
| Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) | El Gouna SC | 7¢ | 0¢ | $66 | $0 | −$66 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | Jun 13 | $491 | $0 | +0% |
| Game 1: Any Player Rampage? | Jun 10 | $471 | −$470 | -100% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $477 | −$6 | -1% |
| Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 | Jun 02 | $480 | +$15 | +3% |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? | Jun 01 | $483 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 21 | $7 | $0 | -2% |
| Spread: El Gouna SC (-2.5) | Apr 29 | $66 | −$66 | -100% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Apr 29 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 | Apr 21 | $9 | +$2 | +25% |
| Spread: Ghana (-1.5) | Mar 30 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? | Mar 30 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-03-28? | Mar 30 | $84 | +$4 | +4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -33.8% | -40.1% | 0% | 0% | -39.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -16.7% | -24.6% | 17% | 0% | -26.9% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -22.6% | -29.9% | 25% | 8% | -27.5% |
| all | 12 | -22.6% | -29.9% | 25% | 8% | -27.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.9% | 8% | -27.5% |
| 10% | -36.7% | 8% | -34.4% |
| 15% | -42.8% | 0% | -40.8% |
| 20% | -48.4% | 0% | -46.6% |