Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17d8…ad4d crypto 779 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-2%) realized −$105 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate86%670W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$118
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 349 +4.1% -5.8% 83% 66% -7.3%
≤30d 392 +3.6% -6.3% 84% 61% -7.4%
≤90d 484 +2.5% -7.2% 85% 51% -10.0%
all 778 +1.0% -8.6% 86% 39% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 39% -11.2%
10% -17.4% 20% -19.7%
15% -25.4% 8% -27.4%
20% -32.7% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses670 / 108
Open positions1
Markets (closed)778 / 779
History coverage151d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 778 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.74 (match) · 1837 history records