Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
17 0x17d8…2eae crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$550 (+20%) realized +$551 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%28W / 21L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$114
other 28% +$330
world 1% −$1
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +15.8% +4.8% 57% 53% -2.2%
≤30d 49 +15.8% +4.8% 57% 53% -2.2%
≤90d 49 +15.8% +4.8% 57% 53% -2.2%
all 49 +15.8% +4.8% 57% 53% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 53% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -5.3% 51% -11.6%
15% -14.4% 43% -20.1%
20% -22.8% 39% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$37 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$551
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses28 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage2d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$21 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $78 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $76 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$15 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$92 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $130 +$43 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $129 +$34 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $205 −$87 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $61 +$36 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$12 +45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$44 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$46 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$104 +226%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 +$11 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $162 +$120 +74%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$38 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$85 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $90 +$49 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $47 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.17 · official $19.17 (match) · 124 history records