Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17e0…fe5b weather 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,958 (+10%) realized +$8,931 · open +$1,027
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%120W / 96L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day65.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,981
7 days−$2,116
14 days+$164
30 days−$1,472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$9,037
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +18.5% +7.2% 47% 34% -9.2%
≤30d 157 -17.0% -24.9% 46% 33% -8.6%
≤90d 216 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 41% -0.3%
all 216 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 41% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 41% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 30% -9.8%
15% -27.0% 22% -18.5%
20% -34.1% 18% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$605) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$227 vs −$201 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$3,652
Realized+$8,931
Unrealized+$1,027
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses120 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)216 / 222
History coverage45d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day65.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 70¢ 95¢ $1,379 $1,864 +$485 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $641 $970 +$330 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 99¢ $178 $409 +$231 (+130%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 16¢ 29¢ $189 $345 +$156 (+83%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 48¢ 21¢ $143 $63 −$80 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $36 +$547 +1537%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $1,582 +$47 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $346 +$659 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $125 −$121 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $110 −$106 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $43 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $381 −$371 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $1,388 +$1,072 +77%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $613 +$240 +39%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 14 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $427 +$268 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $402 −$17 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $257 −$248 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 −$39 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $61 −$57 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $434 −$421 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $720 +$205 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $302 −$163 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $235 +$155 +66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $2,122 −$2,099 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 09 $978 −$944 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $423 −$358 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $360 −$340 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $652 +$77 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 09 $3,125 +$390 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $504 −$503 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 08 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 31? Jun 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 08 $186 −$186 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 08 $158 −$158 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? Jun 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 08 $398 −$239 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 30? Jun 08 $201 −$201 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 30? Jun 08 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? Jun 08 $158 −$158 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 7? Jun 08 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $606 −$606 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $714 −$714 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Jun 08 $188 −$128 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 1? Jun 08 $648 −$170 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $551 +$43 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $2 35m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $7 35m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $13 41m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 31¢ $8 51m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 20¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 18¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 46¢ $48 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,651.67 · official $3,651.67 (match) · 3127 history records