Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17e0…1e88 sports 1439 markets active 2h ago coverage 422d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 421d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,304 (-5%) realized −$2,237 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%521W / 913L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$103
14 days−$270
30 days−$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,940
other 6% −$239
crypto 4% +$90
politics 0% −$91
world 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -13.9% -22.1% 31% 31% -28.2%
≤30d 46 -20.6% -28.1% 30% 30% -31.8%
≤90d 48 -23.9% -31.1% 29% 29% -34.9%
all 1434 -9.9% -18.5% 36% 34% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 34% -13.2%
10% -26.3% 33% -21.5%
15% -33.4% 30% -29.1%
20% -40.0% 28% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$22 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

422d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$2,237
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses521 / 913
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1434 / 1439
History coverage422d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 4¢ $32 $3 −$29 (-90%)
Scotland to score first vs. Brazil? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 481 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -5%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$2 -9%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $37 +$35 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$33 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima Jun 24 $23 −$22 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 22 $12 −$2 -13%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 22 $79 −$33 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $12 +$9 +75%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $58 −$51 -87%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5) Jun 22 $34 +$26 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$24 +70%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 +$37 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 −$28 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $18 +$59 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 13 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$26 -95%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $74 −$73 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $94 −$49 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $56 +$44 +79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $85 −$29 -34%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $97 −$35 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$70 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $57 +$55 +97%
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata end in a draw? Jun 07 $78 +$25 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Perth Glory FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $45 −$44 -98%
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Dec 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Morningstar (BO3) Dec 29 $44 +$11 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 48¢ $9 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $5 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY 41¢ $18 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $33 2h
Scotland to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 48¢ $18 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $20 6h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 50¢ $37 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $45 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $46 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 6h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima BUY Sebastian Gima 14¢ $23 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz BUY Clement Chidekh 33¢ $34 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz SELL Aziz Dougaz 72¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz BUY Aziz Dougaz 56¢ $46 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 14¢ $18 2d
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5) SELL Tauson 99¢ $60 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 16¢ $6 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 13¢ $6 2d
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Corentin Moutet 57¢ $12 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 28¢ $12 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 67¢ $33 2d
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5) BUY Tauson 55¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $34 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.14 · official $20.76 · 3500 history records