Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
17 0x17e2…0a24 sports 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$58 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%121W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$22
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$19
other 10% −$26
politics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 46% -7.5%
≤30d 216 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 45% -9.6%
≤90d 219 -6.2% -15.1% 50% 44% -13.1%
all 240 -5.3% -14.4% 50% 42% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 42% -11.6%
10% -22.6% 39% -20.0%
15% -30.0% 28% -27.8%
20% -36.9% 20% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses121 / 119
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions14
Markets (closed)240 / 254
History coverage518d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $4 $15 +$11 (+292%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner LYON 52¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+90%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 79¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Toronto Tempo make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage Rune Eaters 54¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Golden Knights 69¢ 57¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 71¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 56¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Luis Arraez hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 38¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Pacers Pacers 59¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Emiliano Grillo finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $6 +$2 +41%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$4 -51%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 +$27 +500%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Jimmy Stanger win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$2 +34%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Billy Horschel win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 +$10 +400%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +133%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +54%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $6 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $6 +$2 +35%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 43m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $1 50m
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 70¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $2 1h
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 69¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $4 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 50¢ $3 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 55¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $4 3h
Will Emiliano Grillo finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope BUY Yes 99¢ $2 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $4 5h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5h
Will Jimmy Stanger win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $2 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $2 6h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $3 6h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $1 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 7h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 68¢ $3 7h
Will Jimmy Stanger win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $3 7h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL No 83¢ $3 7h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 43¢ $2 8h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY No 83¢ $4 8h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.37 · official $70.59 (match) · 617 history records