Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17e3…1dd9 crypto 611 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,554 (+10%) realized +$1,554 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%242W / 640L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day78.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,288
sports 1% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 375 -66.1% -69.3% 13% 12% -19.4%
≤30d 435 -61.6% -65.3% 14% 14% -20.3%
≤90d 882 -32.0% -38.5% 27% 27% -19.8%
all 882 -32.0% -38.5% 27% 27% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.5% 27% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -44.4% 26% -27.5%
15% -49.8% 23% -34.5%
20% -54.7% 19% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$15 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,554
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses242 / 640
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)882 / 611
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day78.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 882 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$16 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$16 -216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$11 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$19 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $29 −$57 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $33 −$66 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$68 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$14 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$44 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $29 −$58 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$38 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$9 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$66 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$29 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$25 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10PM ET Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$70 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $44 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $48 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $37 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records