Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
17 0x17e4…3014 sports 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$47 (+5%) realized +$2 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day38.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$115
sports 25% +$70
crypto 10% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +21.3% +9.7% 58% 47% -2.4%
≤30d 19 +21.3% +9.7% 58% 47% -2.4%
≤90d 19 +21.3% +9.7% 58% 47% -2.4%
all 19 +21.3% +9.7% 58% 47% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.7% 47% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -0.8% 32% -11.7%
15% -10.4% 21% -20.3%
20% -19.2% 21% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day38.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 66¢ 99¢ $91 $137 +$46 (+50%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 88¢ 87¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $305 +$57 +19%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $68 +$12 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND Jun 21 $76 −$65 -86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 −$10 -40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 21 $25 −$3 -11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $17 −$7 -40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$8 -54%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 $0 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 +$9 +24%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $51 +$40 +79%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United State Jun 20 $4 +$12 +323%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $30 −$2 -8%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 +$2 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $108 +$13 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$10 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +62%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $3 $0 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $51 −$5 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 88¢ $27 13m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $170 14m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 83¢ $42 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $41 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 56¢ $32 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 56¢ $5 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 56¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 56¢ $1 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 56¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $80 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $100 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $86 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $68 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND SELL 6¢ $11 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL 35¢ $15 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 45¢ $23 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 55¢ $0 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 54¢ $25 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.91 · official $162.91 (match) · 68 history records