Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x17e5…3d19 politics 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 220d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 220d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$187,384 (+72%) realized +$179,440 · open +$7,944
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,666per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$31,979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 220d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1,575
politics 32% −$8,418
sports 15% −$300
economics 10% −$26,382
other 4% +$15,608
finance 2% +$760
crypto 1% +$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 2 +9.7% -0.8% 100% 50% -5.4%
all 24 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 25% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 25% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 12% -28.9%
15% -25.9% 12% -35.8%
20% -33.1% 12% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$4,125) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$2,819 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$31,979
Realized+$179,440
Unrealized+$7,944
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions23
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage220d ⚠
Avg bet$9,666
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $14,628 $7,153 −$7,475 (-51%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $287 $3,653 +$3,367 (+1174%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 76¢ 100¢ $2,429 $3,186 +$757 (+31%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $255 $2,957 +$2,702 (+1058%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ $90 $2,775 +$2,685 (+2979%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $3,388 $2,253 −$1,135 (-33%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $234 $2,156 +$1,922 (+822%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $284 $1,800 +$1,516 (+534%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $249 $1,383 +$1,134 (+456%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $229 $719 +$490 (+214%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $280 $628 +$348 (+124%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $230 $546 +$315 (+137%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $289 $426 +$137 (+47%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $200 $422 +$222 (+111%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $241 $386 +$145 (+60%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $40 $332 +$292 (+738%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $165 $307 +$141 (+86%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $141 $226 +$85 (+60%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $80 $219 +$139 (+174%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $88 $174 +$86 (+98%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $90 $156 +$66 (+73%)
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $91 $87 −$4 (-4%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $26 $35 +$9 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Jun 06 $15,704 +$150 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 23 $4,125 +$760 +18%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 09 $10,170 +$123 +1%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 08 $29,987 −$424 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele Mar 03 $150 +$99 +66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $1,760 +$240 +14%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $49 +$1 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $92,198 +$1,480 +2%
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? Feb 28 $1,910 +$37 +2%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $2,968 +$58 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of January? Feb 15 $496 +$3 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January? Feb 15 $522 +$78 +15%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Feb 15 $1,869 +$65 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 28 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jan 28 $57 −$24 -42%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 28 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? Jan 28 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jan 28 $361 −$361 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January? Jan 28 $223 −$223 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $26,382 −$26,382 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? Jan 13 $92 +$99 +108%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? Jan 12 $25 +$130 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 12 $67 −$9 -13%
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi Dec 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 7m
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $26 9m
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $13 9m
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $25 9m
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $65 10m
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $17 10m
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 11m
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 15m
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $10 15m
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 16m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 26m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 30m
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes $1 44m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 49m
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 51m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 52m
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 58m
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $403 58m
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 59m
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $30 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes $1 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $1,136 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes $146 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,978.91 · official $31,983.12 (match) · 3500 history records