Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x17e9…cb00
sports · 21 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$24 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$29 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$78
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage11d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 6 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? No 77¢ 92¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 46¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 24¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 61¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 47¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 +$2 +105%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $7 +$5 +79%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% +$25
other 44% −$2
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $10 22h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador en BUY $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 41¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 82¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 47¢ $5 5d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $6 7d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 63¢ $50 7d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY GamerLegion 47¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest 46¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 61¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 48¢ $2 9d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 55¢ $7 9d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 24¢ $3 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.0% -11.4% 75% 75% +1.4%
≤30d 13 -18.2% -26.0% 54% 54% +15.1%
≤90d 13 -18.2% -26.0% 54% 54% +15.1%
all 13 -18.2% -26.0% 54% 54% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 54% +15.1%
10% -33.1% 46% +4.1%
15% -39.6% 31% -6.0%
20% -45.5% 23% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.54 · official $87.54 · 30 history records