Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
17 0x17ea…c5e3 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$227 (+9%) realized +$227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate75%99W / 33L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$169
14 days+$180
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$260
sports 16% +$8
politics 6% −$14
world 3% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +66.2% +50.4% 74% 58% +17.5%
≤30d 58 +35.4% +22.5% 78% 55% +7.0%
≤90d 132 +13.6% +2.8% 75% 48% +0.6%
all 132 +13.6% +2.8% 75% 48% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 48% +0.6%
10% -7.1% 28% -9.0%
15% -16.0% 19% -17.8%
20% -24.3% 12% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses99 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)132 / 135
History coverage68d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +134%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 +$26 +509%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$6 +15%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$113 +1104%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$7 -64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Akram Afif: 1+ goals Jun 19 $16 +$2 +13%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +27%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $30 −$21 -70%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $70 +$12 +18%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 18 $61 −$24 -39%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -13%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $40 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 43m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $10 57m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 57m
France to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 6h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $5 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 7h
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $32 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $124 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.02 · official $45.02 (match) · 272 history records