Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:29:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x17ea…2af5
world · 69 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$25 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses14 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage479d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 1 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 38¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-44%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $70 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $63 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $73 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $9 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $72 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $101 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $83 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $51 −$2 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 27 $3 $0 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $5 +$39 +810%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $8 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $81 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $42 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $3 $0 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $85 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $2 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% −$1
politics 20% −$1
other 18% −$1
sports 13% −$12
economics 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $79 4h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $62 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $19 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $29 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $13 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $25 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $11 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $40 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $28 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $70 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $24 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $24 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $43 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $73 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $73 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $72 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 +25.4% +13.5% 21% 7% -6.8%
≤90d 64 +11.2% +0.6% 20% 3% -8.3%
all 68 +8.5% -1.8% 21% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 4% -8.7%
10% -11.2% 3% -17.4%
15% -19.8% 3% -25.4%
20% -27.7% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records