Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17ed…c087 world 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 180d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$100,031 (+17%) realized +$77,015 · open +$23,016
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate64%98W / 54L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$3,507per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$59,591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,363
7 days+$12,123
14 days+$14,220
30 days+$17,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$15,454
world 27% +$7,387
other 24% +$20,055
crypto 6% +$8,280
sports 5% −$627
economics 5% +$1,746
tech 0% +$624
culture 0% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +28.7% +16.4% 86% 57% +30.5%
≤30d 18 -2.5% -11.8% 61% 50% +2.3%
≤90d 65 +3.9% -6.0% 68% 45% -1.4%
all 152 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 39% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 39% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 26% -13.5%
15% -26.2% 18% -21.8%
20% -33.4% 14% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$3,380) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$628 vs −$636 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$59,591
Realized+$77,015
Unrealized+$23,016
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses98 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions38
Markets (closed)152 / 171
History coverage181d ⚠
Avg bet$3,507
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 74¢ $11,035 $23,299 +$12,264 (+111%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 42¢ $5,085 $11,310 +$6,225 (+122%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 85¢ 95¢ $9,808 $11,047 +$1,239 (+13%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 99¢ $1,862 $6,912 +$5,050 (+271%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $1,920 $1,875 −$45 (-2%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 69¢ 63¢ $1,612 $1,475 −$136 (-8%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 65¢ 100¢ $658 $1,013 +$355 (+54%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $762 $933 +$171 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $348 $470 +$122 (+35%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 21¢ 90¢ $75 $317 +$242 (+324%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 99¢ $284 $303 +$19 (+7%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 36¢ 31¢ $348 $300 −$48 (-14%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $235 $145 −$90 (-38%)
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? No 80¢ 89¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+11%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 30¢ $120 $23 −$97 (-81%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 16¢ $381 $13 −$368 (-97%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? No 56¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $102 $2 −$100 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $102 $2 −$100 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $102 $2 −$100 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $102 $2 −$100 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $102 $2 −$100 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $102 $2 −$100 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $5,589 +$274 +5%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $7,010 +$194 +3%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $4,136 +$894 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $2,322 +$760 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $7,648 +$9,250 +121%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $680 +$800 +118%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $3,370 +$482 +14%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $768 +$336 +44%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $12,143 +$1,279 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $37,775 +$8,083 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $32,000 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5,614 −$4,774 -85%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $420 −$420 -100%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $12,000 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,801 +$1,378 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $260 −$260 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $1,207 −$1,119 -93%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $449 +$251 +56%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026? May 15 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 14 $80 +$62 +78%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $8,369 +$1,478 +18%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 07 $45 −$44 -96%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? May 04 $27 +$42 +158%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 02 $2,480 +$207 +8%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom May 01 $2 +$6 +256%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $6,667 +$333 +5%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $5,940 +$60 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $785 −$785 -100%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $535 +$287 +54%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $2,616 −$1,177 -45%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 19 $880 −$423 -48%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $8,605 +$846 +10%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Apr 11 $680 +$320 +47%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $26,615 −$6,233 -23%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $420 −$140 -33%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Apr 09 $822 +$200 +24%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $6,923 +$77 +1%
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $32 −$32 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $4,470 +$3,066 +69%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $9,984 +$1,141 +11%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $558 +$342 +61%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $2,739 +$261 +10%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $38,000 +$8,000 +21%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 07 $214 +$57 +27%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 06 $306 −$306 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $13,987 +$971 +7%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY No 69¢ $1,632 34m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $1,012 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $421 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $1,059 3h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $14 5h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 92¢ $1,180 5h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 92¢ $808 5h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 92¢ $18 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $115 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $116 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $118 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $119 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $183 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $267 6h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $908 11h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $7 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,920 12h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $768 12h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $472 12h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 95¢ $28 12h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 95¢ $292 12h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 95¢ $48 12h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 95¢ $24 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59,590.67 · official $59,590.68 (match) · 3500 history records