Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
17 0x17f1…299c other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$64 (+12%) realized +$63 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$28
14 days+$30
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$9
sports 34% +$52
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +47.1% +33.1% 78% 78% +15.6%
≤30d 16 +34.1% +21.3% 69% 69% +52.2%
≤90d 27 +3.2% -6.6% 56% 56% -6.4%
all 34 +17.0% +5.9% 62% 62% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 62% +4.2%
10% -4.3% 62% -5.7%
15% -13.5% 47% -14.8%
20% -22.0% 32% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)34 / 43
History coverage109d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $72 $77 +$5 (+7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 53¢ 78¢ $8 $11 +$4 (+48%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran 27¢ 14¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-46%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$24 +320%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $12 +$4 +34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $9 +$4 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +33%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $31 +$80 +260%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $10 +$10 +104%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? May 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 29 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 28 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $9 +$9 +104%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $10 +$16 +163%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? Mar 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-03-04? Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-04? Mar 06 $10 +$5 +47%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $9 +$22 +244%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 53¢ $8 26m
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $21 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $7 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $4 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $16 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $12 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $16 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $10 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 3d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $1 9d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 81¢ $1 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 15d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 15d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $74 15d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 71¢ $2 29d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 32d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 32d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.17 · official $149.17 (match) · 97 history records