Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x17f1…0528
other · 101 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,217 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,458 · open +$77
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$339
Realized−$1,458
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 101
Avg bet$195
Trades / day81.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit2%
Chart Positions 4 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days−$626
14 days−$37
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 36¢ 70¢ $72 $140 +$67 (+93%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $103 $73 −$30 (-29%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 10¢ 26¢ $23 $62 +$39 (+172%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $54 −$24 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $139 −$114 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $199 −$107 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $26 +$23 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $33 +$210 +638%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $339 −$63 -18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $17 −$9 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $471 −$178 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $178 +$23 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $171 +$25 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $486 −$78 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $194 −$43 -22%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $275 −$237 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $150 −$67 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $225 +$36 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $45 −$34 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $418 +$374 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $285 +$116 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $105 +$33 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 06 $39 +$169 +436%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 06 $162 +$39 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $193 +$5 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $533 −$26 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 06 $134 −$128 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $123 −$8 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $163 −$17 -11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $876 −$109 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $78 +$43 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $192 +$272 +141%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $35 +$183 +528%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $197 −$67 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $361 −$61 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $268 +$23 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $96 +$162 +168%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $47 +$104 +222%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $95 −$38 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 97% −$1,355
crypto 3% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $64 7m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 27m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $40 34m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $30 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $42 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $58 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 31% -18.1%
≤30d 80 +14.9% +4.0% 35% 31% -9.1%
≤90d 97 +11.5% +0.9% 33% 30% -16.5%
all 97 +11.5% +0.9% 33% 30% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover81.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.9% 30% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -8.8% 25% -24.5%
15% -17.6% 21% -31.8%
20% -25.7% 19% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.86 · official $338.86 (match) · 3500 history records