Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

17 0x17f2…4815 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$78 (+25%) realized +$87 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip

Net edge+33%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$106per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+38.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+53.0%	+38.5%	100%	100%	+33.9%
≤30d	2	+53.0%	+38.5%	100%	100%	+33.9%
≤90d	2	+53.0%	+38.5%	100%	100%	+33.9%
all	2	+53.0%	+38.5%	100%	100%	+33.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+38.5%	100%	+33.9%
10%	+25.2%	100%	+21.1%
15%	+13.1%	100%	+9.4%
20%	+2.0%	50%	-1.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +53% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$66 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$31

Realized+$87

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$106

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	30¢	24¢	$40	$31	−$9 (-22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$77	+$50	+64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$199	+$83	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$127	1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$41	3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$77	3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$199	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.33 · official $31.33 (match) · 5 history records