Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17f4…9d7f sports 322 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$91 (-0%) realized −$40 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%114W / 148L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$561per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4,456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$177
14 days−$195
30 days−$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$210
sports 18% −$326
other 10% −$14
politics 10% −$132
crypto 4% −$27
economics 3% +$115
finance 2% $0
tech 1% +$28
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -8.9% -17.6% 28% 8% -11.8%
≤30d 197 -9.0% -17.6% 28% 7% -10.6%
≤90d 229 -7.7% -16.5% 37% 6% -9.7%
all 262 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 6% -9.6%
10% -22.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -29.9% 3% -26.1%
20% -36.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$4,456
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses114 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions59
Markets (closed)262 / 322
History coverage148d
Avg bet$561
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,526 $1,533 +$7 (+0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,482 $1,495 +$13 (+1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $425 $442 +$18 (+4%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $158 $160 +$2 (+1%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 29 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $75 $58 −$18 (-23%)
Will Pigeons Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$1 (+3%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 95¢ 90¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-5%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $52 $40 −$12 (-23%)
Will LAB dip to $12 before 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Historic" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? No 57¢ 72¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+27%)
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 96¢ 78¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-19%)
Will BetBoom Make a Roster Change before September? Yes 62¢ 83¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+34%)
Will Nightblood Gaming Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 93¢ 92¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Speed say "Hat trick" on stream? No 58¢ 51¢ $26 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will NRG Academy Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 93¢ 96¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Speed say "Recover" on stream? No 60¢ 84¢ $13 $19 +$5 (+41%)
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet? Yes 70¢ 55¢ $21 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will the announcers say "Emotion" during the South Africa vs Canada FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 41¢ 27¢ $24 $16 −$9 (-35%)
Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026? No 50¢ 32¢ $23 $15 −$8 (-36%)
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the South Africa vs Canada FIFA World Cup Match? No 25¢ 60¢ $6 $13 +$8 (+142%)
Will 2+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 50¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+94%)
Will Leavitt say "Baby" during the next White House Press Briefing? No 58¢ 56¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LAB dip to $14 before 2027? Jun 29 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Waymo launch in Pittsburgh, PA by December 31 2026? Jun 29 $11 $0 -2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 29? Jun 29 $3 $0 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 29? Jun 28 $88 −$1 -1%
Will the announcers say "History" during the South Africa vs Canada FI Jun 28 $17 $0 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 29? Jun 28 $2 $0 -18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $68 on June 29? Jun 28 $20 −$1 -3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 29? Jun 28 $1 $0 -4%
Will the announcers say "Transition" during the South Africa vs Canada Jun 28 $46 −$4 -9%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the South Africa vs Canada FIFA Jun 28 $12 −$4 -32%
Will the announcers say "Aggressive" during the South Africa vs Canada Jun 28 $105 −$14 -13%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the South Afr Jun 28 $6 −$1 -15%
Will the announcers say "Gamble" or "Gambling" during the South Africa Jun 28 $19 −$15 -78%
Will the announcers say "Stoppage Time" 4+ times during the South Afri Jun 28 $3 $0 -10%
Will the announcers say "Equalize" or "Equalizer" during the South Afr Jun 28 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the South Africa vs Jun 28 $8 $0 -4%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the South Africa vs Canad Jun 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will Leavitt say "Administration" 10+ times during the next White Hous Jun 28 $3 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA Jun 28 $13 +$9 +70%
Will the announcers say "Noise" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA Wo Jun 28 $17 +$5 +30%
Will Leavitt say "President" 30+ times during the next White House Pre Jun 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Jordan vs Argentina F Jun 28 $64 −$30 -47%
Will the announcers say "Atmosphere" during the Jordan vs Argentina FI Jun 28 $28 +$14 +51%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA Jun 28 $24 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the match not air? Jun 28 $82 +$3 +3%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $100 +$15 +14%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Panama vs England FIFA Worl Jun 28 $23 +$15 +68%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Panama vs England FIFA Wo Jun 28 $93 −$19 -20%
Will Speed say "Energy" on stream? Jun 28 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Speed say "Wave" on stream? Jun 28 $18 +$4 +24%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA W Jun 27 $37 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? Jun 27 $11 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 28? Jun 27 $108 −$1 -1%
Will KAST launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 27 $6 $0 -5%
Will the announcers say "Barcelona" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA W Jun 27 $75 −$2 -3%
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $14 −$2 -11%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $42 −$13 -30%
Will Discord IPO by November 30, 2026? Jun 27 $17 $0 -2%
Will the match not air? Jun 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will T1 Make Finals at MSI 2026 Jun 26 $49 −$15 -30%
Will Leavitt say "Pool" during the next White House Press Briefing? Jun 26 $6 $0 -4%
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Veda launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $22 −$4 -16%
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Codex launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 26 $14 $0 -2%
Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 26 $16 $0 -2%
Will Deep Cross Gaming Make Finals at MSI 2026 Jun 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Panama vs England FIFA W Jun 26 $14 −$4 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LAB dip to $12 before 2027? BUY No 13¢ $3 23m
Will LAB dip to $12 before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $36 29m
Will LAB dip to $12 before 2027? BUY No $2 34m
Will LAB dip to $14 before 2027? SELL No $2 42m
Will LAB dip to $12 before 2027? BUY No 12¢ $2 43m
Will LAB dip to $14 before 2027? BUY No $3 44m
Will Waymo launch in Pittsburgh, PA by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 1h
Will Waymo launch in Pittsburgh, PA by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will Waymo launch in Pittsburgh, PA by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 1h
Will Waymo launch in San Diego, CA by December 31 2026? BUY No 46¢ $10 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 29? SELL No 73¢ $36 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 29? SELL No 76¢ $38 2h
Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 29? SELL No 12¢ $3 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 29? BUY No 12¢ $3 2h
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026? SELL No 35¢ $7 2h
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026? BUY No 35¢ $1 3h
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026? BUY No 35¢ $6 3h
Will Waymo launch in Tampa, FL by December 31 2026? BUY No 71¢ $16 3h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 29? BUY No 90¢ $91 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 29? SELL No 93¢ $85 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 29? BUY No 93¢ $85 3h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 29? BUY Yes $1 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 29? SELL Yes $1 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 29? BUY Yes $2 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $68 on June 29? SELL Yes 87¢ $19 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $68 on June 29? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 3h
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $11 3h
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026? BUY No 66¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,456.42 · official $4,456.08 (match) · 1187 history records