Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x17f5…f087 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$613 (+15%) realized +$665 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$279
other 48% +$237
crypto 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -15.1% -23.2% 47% 47% +4.5%
≤30d 55 -15.1% -23.2% 47% 47% +4.5%
≤90d 55 -15.1% -23.2% 47% 47% +4.5%
all 55 -15.1% -23.2% 47% 47% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 47% +4.5%
10% -30.5% 45% -5.5%
15% -37.2% 33% -14.7%
20% -43.4% 29% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$29 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized+$665
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage5d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 50¢ $279 $219 −$60 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Under 52¢ 56¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $41 +$62 +152%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $426 +$117 +28%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +54%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $267 +$73 +27%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 −$69 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 +$40 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $240 +$95 +40%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$29 +114%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $298 +$72 +24%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$39 +158%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $260 +$63 +24%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $34 −$27 -79%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$8 -56%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jun 16 $11 +$10 +90%
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $130 +$197 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 +$101 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $142 −$141 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $22 +$16 +75%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $24 +$5 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$57 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$12 +33%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $74 +$50 +67%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $58 +$66 +114%
Zachary Svajda vs. Martin Damm: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $99 +$12 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 −$84 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $121 +$63 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $282 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $14 5h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 24¢ $26 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $19 14h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $543 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $426 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $70 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $70 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $267 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 21¢ $19 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $28 28h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $20 28h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $20 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $240 40h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $19 40h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $25 40h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $298 42h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $25 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $260 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over $5 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 18¢ $6 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over $2 2d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $6 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $34 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $15 2d
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner BUY France 60¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.95 · official $301.94 · 95 history records