Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

17 0x17f6…fafa sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$130 (+13%) realized +$175 · open −$45

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%16W / 10L

Drawdown50%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day9.8pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-3.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	+7.3%	-3.0%	62%	62%	+7.4%
≤30d	26	+7.3%	-3.0%	62%	62%	+7.4%
≤90d	26	+7.3%	-3.0%	62%	62%	+7.4%
all	26	+7.3%	-3.0%	62%	62%	+7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.0%	62%	+7.4%
10%	-12.2%	58%	-2.9%
15%	-20.7%	46%	-12.3%
20%	-28.5%	38%	-20.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late +14% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$27 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$46

Realized+$175

Unrealized−$45

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses16 / 10

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions3

Markets (closed)26 / 29

History coverage4d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day9.8

Drawdown50%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Yes	80¢	48¢	$50	$30	−$20 (-40%)
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	Ecuador	25¢	24¢	$17	$16	−$0 (-2%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	56¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$50	−$50	-100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$101	+$87	+86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$51	+$54	+105%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$51	−$51	-100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$16	−$16	-100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$25	+$26	+101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$51	+$33	+65%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$51	+$32	+63%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$35	+$9	+26%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 17	$15	+$30	+197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$50	+$16	+32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$35	−$35	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$86	+$57	+66%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$6	+57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$20	+$24	+119%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$25	+$13	+50%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$50	+$7	+14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$26	+$33	+128%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$25	+$13	+50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$25	+$7	+29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$25	−$25	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	BUY Ecuador	25¢	$17	46m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	56¢	$25	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	80¢	$25	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	81¢	$25	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	86¢	$104	3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	94¢	$50	3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	41¢	$51	4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	53¢	$101	4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	6h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$15	26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$25	33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5	BUY Over	60¢	$25	33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5	BUY Over	60¢	$25	33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	25¢	$16	35h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	36h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	79¢	$10	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	79¢	$25	2d
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	33¢	$15	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$50	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	79¢	$25	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$25	2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	71¢	$25	2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	73¢	$25	2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	74¢	$10	2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$25	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$20	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.49 · official $49.29 · 65 history records