Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
17 0x17f7…24fe other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+7%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$12
sports 29% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +20.8% +9.3% 43% 29% +1.0%
≤30d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 30% -0.6%
≤90d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 30% -0.6%
all 10 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 30% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 30% -0.6%
10% -18.9% 30% -10.1%
15% -26.7% 30% -18.8%
20% -33.9% 20% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage8d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $56 +$5 +9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$22 +73%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 +$49 +367%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL Yes 38¢ $28 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 3d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $15 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $14 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.30 · official $4.30 (match) · 21 history records