Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
17 0x17fa…7145 crypto 17 markets active 3d ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$530 (-25%) realized −$530 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$409
14 days−$409
30 days−$409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$558
sports 27% +$154
other 7% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.0% -25.8% 57% 50% -28.8%
≤30d 14 -18.0% -25.8% 57% 50% -28.8%
≤90d 14 -18.0% -25.8% 57% 50% -28.8%
all 17 -25.5% -32.6% 53% 47% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 47% -33.2%
10% -39.0% 35% -39.6%
15% -44.9% 24% -45.4%
20% -50.3% 24% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$119 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$530
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage146d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $141 +$86 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $197 −$190 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$18 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$82 +79%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $326 +$43 +13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $202 +$102 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 19 $57 −$57 -98%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $48 +$9 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $209 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $141 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $197 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $303 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $369 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $326 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $305 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $202 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 148d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $50 148d
Texans vs. Patriots SELL Patriots 100¢ $57 148d
Texans vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 84¢ $48 148d
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records