Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17fc…0fc0 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,166 (-39%) realized −$4,166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%49W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$1,966
14 days−$2,017
30 days−$2,468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$3,350
sports 42% −$1,062
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -29.6% -36.3% 38% 33% -51.3%
≤30d 79 -21.5% -29.0% 42% 38% -39.8%
≤90d 119 -24.7% -31.9% 41% 38% -48.0%
all 119 -24.7% -31.9% 41% 38% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 38% -48.0%
10% -38.4% 36% -53.0%
15% -44.4% 35% -57.5%
20% -49.8% 29% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$102 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses49 / 70
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage45d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$101 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $11 +$61 +574%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $39 +$38 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$16 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$10 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $150 −$145 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $773 −$762 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $306 +$30 +10%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 63¢ $78 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 40¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY No 3¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 23¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 286 history records