Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1803…4907 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$12
other 15% +$3
politics 8% −$1
sports 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.2% -7.6% 50% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 5 -1.9% -11.3% 20% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 14 -8.5% -17.2% 21% 7% -10.9%
all 42 -2.5% -11.8% 40% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 5% -10.1%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage307d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $59 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $3 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $109 −$6 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $40 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $136 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $72 −$3 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $5 +$1 +13%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $79 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $8 −$2 -22%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $8 +$1 +19%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $8 $0 +6%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $5 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $5 $0 -2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 29 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 23 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 22 $40 $0 +1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Aug 22 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $48 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $11 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $4 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $9 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $46 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $28 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $3 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $3 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $12 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $21 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $19 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $55 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $38 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $3 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $9 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $24 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $14 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $53 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $24 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $41 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $28 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $33 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.11 · official $56.49 (match) · 149 history records