Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1806…b69b other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$121 (+6%) realized +$125 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%25W / 50L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$197
14 days+$216
30 days+$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$161
sports 42% +$49
world 3% +$42
crypto 2% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +3.2% -6.6% 39% 39% +7.6%
≤30d 75 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 33% +1.5%
≤90d 75 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 33% +1.5%
all 75 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 33% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 33% +1.5%
10% -20.3% 32% -8.3%
15% -28.0% 31% -17.1%
20% -35.1% 23% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$13 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 50
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 90
History coverage11d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England leading at halftime? Yes 64¢ 57¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 +$5 +94%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$60 +119%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -43%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 +$12 +786%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $3 +$17 +550%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$15 +145%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$45 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $7 +$5 +69%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$22 +43%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$7 -69%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -68%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$13 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$16 +51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $288 +$164 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$4 -79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$15 -75%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$3 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $56 +$69 +123%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $37 +$18 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 +$42 +159%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$3 -6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$9 -81%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$146 +473%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $58 −$45 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 98¢ $111 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $51 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 46¢ $10 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY 12¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 25h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $10 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $25 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 31h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 96¢ $12 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $7 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 62¢ $61 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $31 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $67 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.94 · official $53.12 · 133 history records