Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1809…dcf9 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$460 (-5%) realized −$447 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%27W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,030
7 days−$1,111
14 days−$1,111
30 days−$1,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$1,111
other 7% −$321
sports 1% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +20.6% +9.2% 33% 33% -26.1%
≤30d 60 +20.6% +9.2% 33% 33% -26.1%
≤90d 83 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 33% -27.5%
all 83 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 33% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 33% -27.5%
10% -16.5% 24% -34.5%
15% -24.5% 23% -40.8%
20% -31.9% 18% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$75 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$447
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses27 / 56
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage80d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 10¢ 6¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $258 +$194 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$149 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $414 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $416 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $211 −$19 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1,256 −$50 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$148 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $417 +$634 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $208 +$242 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $633 −$186 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$143 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $131 −$112 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $206 +$151 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $305 +$88 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $302 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$94 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$65 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$489 +9152%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 +$164 +1592%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $153 +$68 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $53 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $207 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $202 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $452 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $206 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $206 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $208 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $206 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $209 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $207 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,235 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $206 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $209 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.11 · official $150.89 · 254 history records