Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

18 0x180b…4725 economics 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$328 (+115%) realized +$403 · open −$75

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip

Net edge+50%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$95per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 182d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+50.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	+66.1%	+50.3%	50%	50%	+168.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+50.3%	50%	+168.7%
10%	+35.9%	50%	+143.0%
15%	+22.8%	50%	+119.5%
20%	+10.7%	50%	+98.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +66% · $-wt +197% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$372 vs −$19 · ×19.56 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×19.56 per $1 lost it wins $19.56

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized+$403

Unrealized−$75

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage182d

Avg bet$95

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$100	$25	−$75 (-75%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Mar 18	$160	+$372	+232%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?	Dec 17	$19	−$19	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$105	2h
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	BUY Yes	30¢	$160	92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?	BUY Yes	13¢	$19	182d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.00 · official $25.00 (match) · 4 history records