Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x180e…b3a6
sports · 67 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
−$581 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$641 · open +$60
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,952
Realized−$641
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses22 / 36
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions9
Markets (closed)58 / 67
History coverage30d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 9 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days−$469
14 days+$696
30 days−$641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 52¢ 80¢ $400 $620 +$220 (+55%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ 100¢ $200 $393 +$193 (+97%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 53¢ 100¢ $200 $377 +$177 (+89%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 50¢ 44¢ $274 $239 −$35 (-13%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 49¢ 58¢ $98 $117 +$19 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 45¢ 0¢ $200 $2 −$198 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Monte 33¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 1 Winner NIP 27¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner JD Gaming 35¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 14¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 47¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 48¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Liquid 22¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Heroic 18¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 52¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 38¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 26¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 49¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 33¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Movistar KOI 50¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $405 +$262 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $404 +$202 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $305 +$435 +143%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$10 +91%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $304 +$284 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $406 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $203 +$148 +73%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $204 +$337 +165%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $406 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $214 +$495 +231%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $15 +$30 +194%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $203 +$140 +69%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $202 +$137 +67%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $607 +$438 +72%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $163 +$225 +138%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $304 +$232 +76%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$67 +650%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $710 +$636 +90%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $199 +$359 +180%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $102 +$184 +180%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $21 +$190 +925%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $103 +$627 +612%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $812 −$800 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 29 $102 +$169 +166%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 1 Winner May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% −$962
world 2% +$3
other 2% +$359
economics 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 71¢ $75 4m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 45¢ $203 26m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 54¢ $203 36m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 50¢ $203 37m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 30¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 7¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 59¢ $202 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $203 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $404 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $405 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $204 20h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $102 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 49¢ $102 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 39¢ $102 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $51 22h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 52¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $102 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 55¢ $203 25h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 51¢ $304 26h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 28¢ $102 26h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $406 31h
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 52¢ $406 4d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 37¢ $204 4d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 22¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 58¢ $203 4d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 20¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 25¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -8.0% -16.8% 38% 38% -15.2%
≤30d 58 +14.2% +3.3% 38% 38% -14.7%
≤90d 58 +14.2% +3.3% 38% 38% -14.7%
all 58 +14.2% +3.3% 38% 38% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 38% -14.7%
10% -6.6% 38% -22.9%
15% -15.6% 38% -30.3%
20% -23.9% 36% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,952.00 · official $1,952.00 (match) · 125 history records