Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
18 0x180e…29df weather 555 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$159 (+2%) realized +$145 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate75%409W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$103
14 days+$110
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$177
crypto 5% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +6.0% -4.1% 91% 69% -5.1%
≤30d 276 +1.8% -7.9% 84% 69% -7.2%
≤90d 542 -3.4% -12.6% 75% 61% -8.8%
all 542 -3.4% -12.6% 75% 61% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 61% -8.8%
10% -20.9% 40% -17.5%
15% -28.6% 13% -25.5%
20% -35.6% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$544
Realized+$145
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses409 / 133
Open positions13
Markets (closed)542 / 555
History coverage71d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? No 85¢ 92¢ $43 $46 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? No 84¢ 91¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? No 82¢ 88¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? No 88¢ 95¢ $41 $44 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? No 81¢ 84¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? No 86¢ 90¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? No 85¢ 90¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? No 82¢ 83¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? No 87¢ 86¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? No 86¢ 84¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? No 81¢ 79¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 87¢ 74¢ $42 $36 −$6 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? No 89¢ 96¢ $28 $31 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 +$9 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 +$9 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 +$9 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $39 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$5 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$5 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $28 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $28 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$5 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $10 43m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $41 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $33 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $19 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $43 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $51 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $47 10h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $18 10h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $24 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $43 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $26 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $48 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $38 19h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $53 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $17 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $16 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $16 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $33 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $21 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $543.94 · official $543.94 (match) · 1360 history records