Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:03:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1811…913b sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,195 (-31%) realized −$1,104 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%20W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$156
14 days−$735
30 days−$1,138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$288
world 17% −$545
other 10% −$56
politics 10% −$263
crypto 6% −$35
weather 4% −$81
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.8% -18.4% 53% 42% -22.5%
≤30d 46 -24.9% -32.1% 35% 26% -49.0%
≤90d 46 -24.9% -32.1% 35% 26% -49.0%
all 57 -19.6% -27.3% 35% 25% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 25% -43.1%
10% -34.2% 21% -48.5%
15% -40.6% 18% -53.5%
20% -46.4% 9% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$52 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$635
Realized−$1,104
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses20 / 37
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions11
Markets (closed)57 / 68
History coverage135d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? No 55¢ 57¢ $209 $218 +$9 (+5%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? No 67¢ 50¢ $171 $126 −$45 (-26%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? No 68¢ 63¢ $96 $89 −$6 (-7%)
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $58 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 48¢ 24¢ $116 $57 −$59 (-51%)
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? No 42¢ 55¢ $34 $45 +$11 (+31%)
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? No 8¢ 7¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? No 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 70¢ 69¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Jun 27 $133 +$53 +40%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo Jun 27 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo Jun 27 $122 −$122 -100%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wor Jun 27 $65 −$9 -14%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Jun 27 $97 +$62 +64%
Will the announcers say "Comeback" or "Come Back" during the Norway vs Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Norway vs France FIFA Wo Jun 26 $156 +$15 +10%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Japan vs Jun 26 $98 +$55 +56%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World C Jun 26 $4 +$8 +187%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg” or “Meg" during the Turkiye vs USA FI Jun 26 $33 +$17 +50%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Jun 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor Jun 26 $29 +$7 +24%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Jun 26 $12 +$5 +45%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor Jun 26 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Scotland vs Brazil FI Jun 25 $19 +$11 +56%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World Jun 24 $43 −$2 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 20 $569 −$569 -100%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $98 +$21 +22%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $80 +$2 +3%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $11 +$5 +45%
Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary El Jun 07 $233 −$233 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Men's Knockout - Slovakia vs. Finland Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Paycheck to Paycheck" during the Fighting Oli Jun 07 $69 −$46 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $50 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 04 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$14 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $42 −$29 -68%
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 01 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will "Kpop Demon Hunters" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jensen Huang say "Data Center" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote? Jun 01 $10 −$1 -10%
Will a candidate win outright in the Texas Dem Senate Primary? Mar 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 08 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Monaco advance to the round of 16? Mar 08 $17 +$1 +9%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY No 55¢ $39 44m
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY No 55¢ $39 1h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY No 55¢ $39 1h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY No 55¢ $39 1h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY No 55¢ $39 1h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA BUY Yes 82¢ $59 1h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY No 55¢ $17 1h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY No 69¢ $27 1h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY No 69¢ $49 1h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY No 67¢ $49 1h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY No 65¢ $49 1h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY No 42¢ $6 1h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY No 42¢ $29 1h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World BUY No 68¢ $48 1h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World BUY No 67¢ $49 1h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY No 16¢ $8 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $5 6h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wor BUY No 14¢ $5 13h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wor BUY No 14¢ $11 13h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA BUY No 8¢ $6 14h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Norway vs France FIFA Wo BUY Yes 91¢ $64 19h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Norway vs France FIFA Wo BUY Yes 91¢ $92 20h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo BUY No 24¢ $14 24h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo BUY No 24¢ $37 24h
Will the announcers say "Comeback" or "Come Back" during the Norway vs BUY No 22¢ $7 24h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo BUY No 24¢ $7 24h
Will the announcers say "Comeback" or "Come Back" during the Norway vs BUY No 22¢ $7 24h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA BUY No 7¢ $2 34h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA BUY No 7¢ $6 34h
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Jordan vs Argentina FIFA BUY Yes 46¢ $8 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $634.76 · official $634.76 (match) · 213 history records