Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1813…e74f other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$310 (-23%) realized −$310 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%35W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$70
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$67
politics 25% −$340
sports 21% −$9
crypto 4% +$25
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +28.7% +16.5% 76% 59% +4.1%
≤30d 30 +32.3% +19.7% 77% 60% +5.1%
≤90d 34 +16.8% +5.7% 68% 53% -39.4%
all 59 +12.7% +2.0% 59% 47% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 47% -28.3%
10% -7.8% 42% -35.1%
15% -16.7% 34% -41.4%
20% -24.9% 29% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$22 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses35 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 80
History coverage149d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $102 −$23 -22%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 +$17 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $39 +$22 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 $0 -3%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $10 +$15 +147%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 20 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi Jun 19 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$9 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$4 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +35%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $5 +$7 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $117 −$114 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $114 −$113 -99%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 11 $113 −$113 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bulls vs. Pacers Feb 01 $87 −$78 -89%
Lakers vs. Cavaliers Jan 28 $35 −$1 -3%
Magic vs. Heat Jan 28 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $20 +$24 +120%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $21 +$14 +69%
Nets vs. Suns Jan 28 $10 +$3 +33%
Clippers vs. Jazz Jan 28 $10 +$3 +33%
Pistons vs. Nuggets Jan 28 $10 +$4 +45%
Lakers vs. Bulls Jan 27 $51 +$47 +92%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $11 −$2 -16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jan 26 $5 −$3 -69%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $19 −$9 -50%
Pacers vs. Hawks Jan 26 $20 +$10 +51%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 26 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $80 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $118 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $39 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 5¢ $5 31h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 17¢ $10 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 53¢ $10 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 59¢ $10 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 17¢ $5 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 23¢ $10 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND SELL 25¢ $5 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 27¢ $5 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26 BUY 32¢ $5 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 32¢ $5 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 35¢ $5 31h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 69¢ $5 31h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 53¢ $5 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 44¢ $5 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 32h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 32h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 74¢ $10 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL 61¢ $10 32h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 58¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 61¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A SELL 44¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $96.68 · 172 history records