Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:52:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
18 0x1816…2ee6 sports 665 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,726 (-4%) realized −$4,726 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%329W / 336L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1,581est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days−$264
14 days−$557
30 days−$2,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,578
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -11.6% -20.0% 44% 42% -16.9%
≤30d 153 -10.5% -19.0% 46% 44% -15.9%
≤90d 464 -10.1% -18.6% 50% 48% -11.2%
all 665 -12.0% -20.4% 49% 48% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 48% -13.3%
10% -28.0% 45% -21.6%
15% -35.0% 39% -29.2%
20% -41.4% 29% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$126 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,726
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses329 / 336
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$1,581
Open positions0
Markets (closed)665 / 665
History coverage143d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 665 Trades
no open positions (301 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $254 +$88 +35%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $61 +$39 +64%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $51 +$69 +136%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $97 +$246 +254%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $71 +$30 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $100 +$71 +71%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $80 −$79 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $34 +$42 +124%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $25 +$11 +43%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $101 +$75 +74%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $101 −$49 -49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $147 −$3 -2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$2 +91%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $51 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $139 −$4 -3%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$37 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $249 −$245 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $172 +$77 +45%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $96 +$76 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $241 −$101 -42%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $96 +$144 +150%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $303 −$300 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $324 +$76 +23%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $101 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $201 +$166 +82%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $905 +$623 +69%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $501 +$486 +97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $406 −$400 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $89 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $51 32m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $252 39m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $99 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $61 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 99¢ $69 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 88¢ $51 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $51 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $51 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $61 11h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 28¢ $39 13h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $102 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $343 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 27¢ $97 28h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 34¢ $102 31h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner SELL Game Master 99¢ $101 33h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 69¢ $71 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $16 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 84¢ $100 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 41¢ $54 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $100 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 43¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $75 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 38¢ $3 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $36 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1181 history records