Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x1817…9eb2 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$342 (-17%) realized −$300 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$724now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 60% −$331
other 40% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -28.4% -35.2% 0% 0% -35.2%
≤30d 1 -28.4% -35.2% 0% 0% -35.2%
≤90d 1 -28.4% -35.2% 0% 0% -35.2%
all 1 -28.4% -35.2% 0% 0% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.2% 0% -35.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 0% -41.4%
15% -47.1% 0% -47.1%
20% -52.3% 0% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$331 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$724
Realized−$300
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $392 $346 −$47 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $270 $295 +$25 (+9%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $102 $83 −$20 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $1,166 −$331 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $273 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $20 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $8 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $8 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $22 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $50 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $9 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $112 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $42 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $9 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $157 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $108 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $962 14h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $203 14h
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 28¢ $92 37h
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 13¢ $109 39h
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 32¢ $314 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $277 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $723.52 · official $723.52 (match) · 23 history records