Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
18 0x181d…e8ca crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$128 (+7%) realized +$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate89%50W / 6L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 38% -4.3%
≤30d 56 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 38% -4.3%
≤90d 56 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 38% -4.3%
all 56 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 38% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 38% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 9% -13.4%
15% -25.9% 2% -21.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses50 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage3d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $77 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $88 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $83 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $76 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $71 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $87 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $85 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $65 +$25 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $79 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $81 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $70 +$20 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $76 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $67 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $43 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $23 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $28 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $22 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $21 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records