Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:47:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
18 0x181f…0aff sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3,245per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$841est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$99,995
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -32.8% -39.2% 27% 27% +222.8%
≤30d 11 -32.8% -39.2% 27% 27% +222.8%
≤90d 11 -32.8% -39.2% 27% 27% +222.8%
all 11 -32.8% -39.2% 27% 27% +222.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.2% 27% +222.8%
10% ← realistic here -45.0% 27% +191.9%
15% -50.3% 27% +163.7%
20% -55.2% 18% +137.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +257% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +257% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33,343 vs −$4 · ×9045.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3392.24 per $1 lost it wins $3392.24
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$841
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,245
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Marcinko (+1.5) McNally 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Kym (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5) Jun 25 $38,897 +$100,021 +257%
Set Handicap: Schoolkate (-1.5) vs Mejia (+1.5) Jun 25 $3 +$5 +133%
Set Handicap: Schoolkate (-2.5) vs Mejia (+2.5) Jun 25 $7 +$4 +49%
Set Handicap: Safiullin (-1.5) vs Kym (+1.5) Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Set Handicap: Tarvet (-1.5) vs Sakellaridis (+1.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Harris (-1.5) vs Zhou (+1.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Smith (+1.5) Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Set Handicap: Smith (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Smith (-2.5) vs Zheng (+2.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-2.5) vs Boyer (+2.5) Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Marcinko (+1.5) BUY McNally 48¢ $5 1h
Set Handicap: Kym (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5) BUY Safiullin 28¢ $38,897 2h
Set Handicap: Safiullin (-1.5) vs Kym (+1.5) BUY Safiullin 51¢ $4 7h
Set Handicap: Schoolkate (-2.5) vs Mejia (+2.5) BUY Mejia 67¢ $7 7h
Set Handicap: Schoolkate (-1.5) vs Mejia (+1.5) BUY Mejia 43¢ $3 7h
Set Handicap: Tarvet (-1.5) vs Sakellaridis (+1.5) BUY Sakellaridis 50¢ $5 9h
Set Handicap: Harris (-1.5) vs Zhou (+1.5) BUY Zhou 48¢ $5 9h
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Smith (+1.5) BUY Smith 57¢ $6 9h
Set Handicap: Smith (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5) BUY Smith 32¢ $1 9h
Set Handicap: Smith (-2.5) vs Zheng (+2.5) BUY Smith 17¢ $1 9h
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5) BUY OConnell 42¢ $2 9h
Set Handicap: Smith (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5) BUY Smith 32¢ $0 9h
Set Handicap: Smith (-2.5) vs Zheng (+2.5) BUY Smith 17¢ $0 9h
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Smith (+1.5) BUY Smith 57¢ $1 9h
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Smith (+1.5) BUY Smith 57¢ $1 9h
Set Handicap: Smith (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5) BUY Smith 32¢ $0 9h
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-2.5) vs Boyer (+2.5) BUY Ruiz 21¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $5.00 · 20 history records