Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x181f…4f79 world 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1
other 26% +$1
finance 6% $0
weather 3% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.2%
all 23 +0.1% -9.5% 57% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage465d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $29 +$2 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $9 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend? Mar 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $12 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $18 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $30 10h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $25 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $4 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $29 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $34 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $34 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $17 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $16 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $28 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $34 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $2 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.52 · official $30.52 (match) · 61 history records