Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1820…2aa0 crypto 1205 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,018 (-4%) realized −$1,020 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%757W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$16
14 days−$64
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,490
weather 4% −$186
sports 1% +$173
other 0% −$62
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +11.7% +1.1% 53% 47% -8.5%
≤30d 578 +3.2% -6.6% 65% 47% -9.6%
≤90d 1194 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 48% -14.5%
all 1194 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 48% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 48% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 31% -22.7%
15% -28.0% 20% -30.2%
20% -35.1% 12% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$1,020
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses757 / 437
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1194 / 1205
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$33 -79%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 −$12 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$19 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$31 +530%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $62 +$57 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $106 +$29 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$27 +650%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $34 +$48 +141%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $70 +$30 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 47m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $42 52m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.80 · official $68.48 (match) · 3500 history records