Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
18 0x1820…1a35 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$6
crypto 7% +$5
world 7% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.4% +2.6% 67% 33% -0.6%
≤30d 3 +13.4% +2.6% 67% 33% -0.6%
≤90d 3 +13.4% +2.6% 67% 33% -0.6%
all 3 +13.4% +2.6% 67% 33% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 33% -0.6%
10% -7.2% 33% -10.1%
15% -16.2% 33% -18.8%
20% -24.4% 33% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 71¢ 72¢ $250 $255 +$5 (+2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 58¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 46¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.08 · official $334.08 · 11 history records